Paper marked up in HTML format
by Martin Powell
Introduction
Sector zero - ecosystem services
Primary sector - extraction and production
Secondary sector - resource processing
Secondary sector - simple manufacturing
Secondary sector - complex manufacturing
Tertiary sector - human services
Tertiary sector - physical services
Quaternary sector - information
Quinary sector - domestic economy
A successful ecologically sustainable economy would, more than likely, continue to generate economic growth around the historic trend rate. It would however, over time, dramatically reduce non-renewable resource use, pollution production and would decisively reduce impacts on the natural environment. The result would be (eventually) that society would be ecologically sustainable, that is, life support systems and other species would be maintained in perpetuity 1.
To offset the reduced use of newly extracted non-renewable resources and to maintain economic viability it would be necessary to use:
These fundamental changes will give rise to further consequential
changes. Possible transformations in the sectors of a successful green
economy are described below. These changes would be driven by a suite of
ecotaxes which would be indexed to grow as the economy grew.
Major efforts would be made to restore this sector after the massive
reductions caused since the European colonisation of Australia. Natural
ecosystems would be restored and extended. Greater emphasis would be
placed on the management of ecological communities and the prevention of
threats to such communities and to individual species. This preventative
approach would be supplemented by recovery programs for threatened species.
Wilderness-style management would be increasingly be used in natural
environments as is the most cost effective strategy for the protection of
large areas.
Artificial ecosystems such as agricultural ecosystems would be modified
so that they could perform more of the nature conservation and ecosystem
functions of the natural systems they had replaced. Efforts would be made
to strengthen or re-introduce natural or quasi-natural ecosystems into the
city to manage the flow and purification of drainage water and to provide
greater aesthetic and nature conservation benefits.
In the mining and extractive industries the biggest changes would be a
reduction in fossil fuel production. Society's aim would be to reduce
their production to zero because of their greenhouse impacts. The biggest
initial drop would be in coal. Oil production would fall more slowly.
Demand for fossil fuel gas would grow significantly for a decade or so
while transitional greenhouse policies were operating but would eventually
fall to zero like the other fossil fuels.
The structure of mining would change, with underground mining 2 making a partial comeback as a means of
cutting the energy costs but overall demand would fall very significantly
due to a dramatic increase in recycling. As the technology developed, more
and more of the minerals needed to replace those that 'leaked out' of the
closed-cycle manufacturing system would be supplied from non-conventional
sources. For example, as a way of reducing the pollution and other
environmental impacts of mining, membrane technology would be used to
extract minerals from heavily mineralised water flows (from old tailings
dams, groundwater from heavily mineralised regions and even seawater).
Demand for stone, gravel and other materials needed for the building
industry would stay high for several decades as the urban areas were
restructured to achieve a much higher level of resource use efficiency.
Building material recycling would however temper this demand.
Primary industries harvesting resources from natural environments (e.g.
timber and fish) would reduce output since higher ecological standards of
management would result in lower sustainable yield levels and higher costs
of production. Instead, output from plantations, agro-forestry and
aquaculture projects would significantly increase their output.
Mariculture would not occur to any extent in natural shallow waters or on
the coastline but instead would be based on artificial structures in deep
water.
The production of non-food biological products (e.g. wood and animal
fibre products) would decline due to more efficient consumption patterns
and the substitution of recycled products.
Exports of non-renewable energy and mineral resources and non-food
biological products would remain stable or could decline. Resource
conserving services and manufactured goods would offset the overseas demand
for resource products.
Local and overseas demand for chemical free or minimum chemical residue
agricultural products would increase dramatically. This demand combined
with the need to halt and reverse land degradation would lead to a further
polarisation of land uses between low intensity grazing based on the
retention or establishment of semi-natural ecosystems and high intensity
animal 3 and crop production in limited
areas.
Rural land values would remain high due to intensified competition
between alternative uses (e.g. for grazing, cropping including for fuel
crops, agro and plantation forestry, aquaculture, conservation, tourism,
some forms of mining and dwelling and industrial construction). However,
land would no longer appreciate greatly in value because of the
introduction of a broad based land tax indexed to the growth of the
economy. Agricultural systems would be re-designed around native species
as a way of reducing the ecological impact of agriculture (e.g. greater use
of native plant species for forage and for specific products such as wild
flowers and broombush).
The growing cost of using rural land and of environmental maintenance
would require a greater production of high value products and value adding
should occur as far down-stream as possible.
While a high proportion of products extracted from the environment (e.g.
minerals, non-renewable energy and biological products harvested from
natural environments) would be fully processed, the total quantity of such
processing would eventually decline in absolute amount due to lower
extraction rates.
Eventually a large proportion of processed materials would be derived
from post consumer and industrial waste. This would be a growth area for
several decades.
Overall there would be a significant decline in the quantity of material
processed due to reduced production of throw away products and the steady
elimination of in-efficient consumer systems. Manufacturing systems with
virtually closed materials cycles would be introduced to reduce waste
disposal and pollution emissions to negligible levels.
The substantial shift to a renewable energy resource base would mean
that solar, wind and wave energy systems would expand dramatically.
The refurbishment and remanifacturing of used products would expand.
In economies that had been dominated by resource production there would
be a relative increase in the production of manufactured products as the
physical aspects of manufacturing decentralised and localised under the
impact of ecotaxes and the imperatives of just-in-time production. The
physical volume of manufactured products in countries with 'average'
economic structures would decline for some decades (due to longer product
lives) before stabilising. However the real economic (or use value) of
manufactured products would continue to increase into the future due to the
strong emphasis on value-adding and the increasingly sophisticated
requirements of industry and the domestic sector.
Food products would become much more diverse to match the particular
health needs and preferences of individual consumers.
Because of the emphasis on quality there would be a blurring of the
distinction between parts of the manufacturing and services sectors.
Services to help diagnose customer needs would be coupled with flexible
manufacturing processes to provide custom-made products at low cost.
The human services sector would expand significantly. Preventative
health/welfare services would increase considerably, but curative services
would stabilise. Demand for human services by lower income people would
expand significantly (due to their improved purchasing power and the
declining relative costs of labour intensive products due to the conserver
pricing system).
Tourism, recreation and entertainment activities would continue to
increase with rising incomes and growing leisure time both locally and
overseas. The duration of stays would increase to offset growing transport
costs. High quality natural environments would be in increasing demand as
destinations. Artificial environments (quasi-natural and built) would be
created to provide recreational and educational experiences and to take
user pressure off natural environments.
One-child families would become very common for a half century or more
during which the world population was declining to a stable level that
would permit a high quality of life for all while achieving ecological
sustainability. Services would emerge to help people raise children
successfully in such circumstances eg. 'match-making' services so families
could find partner-families to share some aspects of child rearing so that
their children could grow up with sibling-like relationships.
Retailing would decline somewhat in physical volume but would continue
to increase in value added. Hire services and public lending 'libraries'
for a wide range of products would expand. Resource efficient home
delivery services supported by user friendly electronic shopping systems
would grow significantly. With increased recycling there would be a need
for a comprehensive used products collection system to complement the
existing goods distribution system. The used-components industry would
grow significantly as would repair services. The cleaning of returned
containers would expand significantly.
Maintenance services would expand dramatically as society moved to
ensure that virtually all physical products were managed to extend their
useful life to the maximum.
A new service industry would be established to carry out the warehousing
and long term storage of waste products (as disposal to landfill was phased
out). With the advent of closed cycle production, wastes that were
produced in low volume or for which effective recycling technology did not
yet exist would be accumulated until recycling was feasible.
Energy and resource conservation services would expand greatly. The
energy utilities would buy 'conservation' from companies running energy
conservation programs in industry and in the domestic sector as an
alternative to building new power stations or extracting more liquid
hydrocarbons. Industries wanting to undertake new energy intensive
products would also promote energy conservation as an energy 'source' that
was low in carbon dioxide, thus reducing the need to purchase
internationally traded greenhouse gas permits.
Road and air transport would decline in volume but public transport and
telecommunications would increase and there would probably also be an
increase in sea transport for the energy efficient carriage of goods
between capital cities. The physical volumes of goods and materials
shipped overseas would fall but the real economic value of the goods
carried would increase. The international shipment of waste products would
increase as countries developed specialist skills in reprocessing.
Tourism, recreation and entertainment activities would continue to
increase with rising incomes and growing leisure time both locally and
overseas. The duration of stays would increase to offset growing transport
costs. High quality natural environments would be in increasing demand as
destinations. Artificial environments (quasi-natural and built) would be
created to provide recreational and educational experiences and to take
user pressure off natural environments.
The building industry would grow due to higher levels of renovation and
retrofitting of improved energy systems and due to higher levels of re-use
of building materials. For as long as very low quality building stocks
remained, there would still be a high level demolition and new building to
provide resource efficient, high quality replacement structures.
This sector would expand greatly to become the strategically leading
sector of the economy. There would be a greatly increased demand for
skilled labour and the education/training system would expand accordingly.
There would be significantly higher levels of local design in products and
services. Research and information dissemination services would grow
significantly. Environmental management and resource conservation
research, development and consulting would grow very significantly,
especially during the first few decades of the transition to a conserver
economy.
Mass advertising would tend to decline and the advertising industry
would shift its emphasis from creating and manipulating mass markets for
manufacturers and retailers to servicing the unique needs of purchasers.
Industry's own emphasis on quality rather than quantitative production
would drive this change; regulatory changes where they were needed would
tend to follow rather than lead the change.
The ethical sector of the finance industry would eventually become its
largest component. There would be growth in the absolute size of the
finance industry due to greater rates of saving and investment. Ethical
investment would contribute to growth in savings levels because it would
also have some of the attributes of consumption expenditure being
experienced as a contribution to the investor's immediate quality of life.
(Providing direct or vicarious opportunities to see one's money at work
would become both a marketing technique for such investment and a form of
entertainment.)
The information sector would provide the core of virtual economic
clusters. These clusters would play a major role in the development of
rural and remote areas.
Due to increased leisure, the progressive equalisation of male/female
roles and changed expectations for the work environment, the domestic
economy would emerge as an even more significant sector of the total
economy. More people would begin to do paid work at home or in
neighbourhood serviced offices which incorporated creches and were close to
schools and shops. The boundaries between salaried work, self employment
and leisure would begin to blur. The national accounts would be altered to
formally recognise the quinary or domestic sector including its very large
non-monetary elements e.g. unpaid housework and child rearing.
The domestic sector would produce a significant proportion of its energy
needs using solar technologies.
1 Strictly speaking the extinction rate would be brought down to the
level that would have applied between major extinction events (such as
strikes by large meteors and by ice-ages) and that would have applied
before humans dominated the landscape by the use of technology (starting
with the use of fire and efficient hunting tools). This is an extinction
rate that is dramatically lower than the present rate.
Return to text -1
2 To avoid the safety problems of underground mining, the mining
would be largely carried out by robots.
Return to text -2
3 For animal welfare reasons this would not include the battery
rearing of chickens or the feedlotting of cattle etc.
Return to text -3
Sector zero - ecosystem services
Primary sector - extraction and production
Secondary sector - resource processing
Secondary sector - simple manufacturing
Secondary sector - complex manufacturing
Tertiary sector - human services
Tertiary sector - physical services
Quaternary sector - information
Quinary sector- domestic economy
Footnotes:
Last modified: 6 August 1998